The weekly recap is here! Join us for a recap of what happened last week, and what we'll be interested in this week.
The Bank of England left the base rate unchanged at 5.25 % on Thursday. The decision was as expected. But the British pound weakened in response and here are a few reasons... 2 committee members were in favor of a 25bp rate cut, or the decision was not unanimous. The central bank took the next step to cut rates as it hinted that a cut could come in June. Governor Bailey announced that the central bank could cut rates more than the markets are currently pricing in.
This week we have labour market data, but the BoE is now focusing more on inflation. So the decision might not be completely dependent on the labour market unless there is a big surprise.
Monday: inflation in the Czech Republic (CZK)
Tuesday: the Japanese PPI (JPY), the UK labour market (GBP), the German and Spanish inflation rates (EUR), the Swiss PPI (CHF), the US PPI (USD), Fed President Powell's speech (USD)
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Last week was really rich in data. The market focused mostly on the Fed meeting and the US labour market, thanks to which we could see volatility on the USD. Let's recap the highlights, whatever you're in for this week...
The Czech National Bank cut the rate by 50 basis points on Thursday, which was in line with market expectations. The move marked the third 50 basis point cut in a row. The CNB has met its inflation target of 2 % in the past 2 months. However, the Czech koruna strengthened during the press conference as the Board mentioned that it continues to see moderate inflation risks. Their fulfilment would mean that inflation would again reach the upper boundary of the target band. This is leading the central bank to persist with tighter monetary policy and will approach further rate cuts very cautiously.
Tuesday: RBA meeting and Australian retail sales (AUD), Swiss unemployment rate (CHF)
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Last week was relatively quiet. We focused mostly on Japan. Join us in recapping last week to keep you in the loop!
Thursday's jobless claims fell to 207,000. This was below market estimates, which had expected an increase to 214 thousand. At the moment, claims are at their lowest level in two months. This indicates a solid labor market and increases the room for the Fed to delay cutting interest rates.
Monday: German inflation rate (EUR)
Tuesday: unemployment rate and retail sales in Japan (JPY), Australian retail sales (AUD), inflation rate in France (EUR), German labour market (EUR), preliminary inflation rate and hdp in the Eurozone (EUR), Canadian hdp
This week we have a bit more to come. Most of our attention will be on the Fed meeting, which is expected to leave rates unchanged. So the focus will be on the press conference. The end of the week will bring data from the US labour market (NFP, unemployment rate).
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Monday's recap is here! Last week was marked by inflation. Join us in recapping what we've been watching to keep you in the loop.
On Tuesday, we also saw inflation from Canada, which was rather negative for the Canadian dollar. The core inflation rate rose to 2.9 % year-on-year. Core inflation, on the other hand, slowed to 2 % in March, the lowest level since 3/2021. Overall, the data should give the central bank more confidence to start cutting rates.
Tuesday: PMI index in Australia, Japan, Eurozone, UK, and US
Wednesday: australian inflation rate (AUD) and canadian retail sales (CAD)
Thursday: UK GDP (GBP), US jobless claims (USD)
Friday: tokyo inflation rate and Bank of Japan (JPY) monetary policy meeting
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The last trading week was more in the interest rate area. At the end of the week, we also saw an escalation of the Iran-Israel war. Join us in recapping it all together to get you ready for the new trading week.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also left rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected. The committee said rates will have to remain at higher levels for longer. Inflation expectations remain elevated. The central bank did not deliver any new surprises, but the NZD strengthened on the formulation that rates should remain higher for longer.
Monday: Swiss PPI (CHF), US retail sales (USD)
Tuesday: UK unemployment rate (GBP), Canadian inflation rate (CAD), Fed President J. Powell's speech (USD)
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Monday's recap of last week is here! Join us as we recap what we've been focusing on and what the current trading week has in store for us.
We received a number of data from Japan at the end of the week. Retail sales rose 4.6 % y/y, an acceleration from January's increase. Tokyo inflation was unchanged y/y at 2.6 % and we saw a small slowdown in the core reading. However, inflation is still above the Bank of Japan's target. The unemployment rate hit its highest level since September 2023. It's very much a combination for the JPY. The market is likely to focus more on inflation. Recently, we have seen mentions of intervention. That said, we will be very wary of any commentary that could move the JPY.
Monday: ISM PMI (USD), PMI (CAD)
Tuesday: PMI (AUD), RBA minutes (AUD), retail sales (CHF), German inflation rate (EUR), PMI (GBP)
Wednesday: Preliminary Eurozone inflation rate (EUR), ADP employment change (USD), PMI (USD), Powell's Fed speech (USD)
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The whole of last week was mostly about monetary policy meetings of central banks, where we got some surprising information. Come along with us for a recap of the highlights to get you up to speed for the new trading week!
Wednesday's UK inflation rate also showed a decline. The core inflation rate fell to 3.4 % year-on-year in February, taking it to its lowest level since 9/2021. Core inflation fell to 4.5 %, taking it to its lowest level since 1/2022. This is negative news for the pound.
However, we focused more attention on Thursday's meeting of the Bank of England, which is estimated to have left rates unchanged at 5.25 %. One policymaker voted for a 25bp rate cut. BoE Governor Bailey said conditions were favourable for the central bank to start cutting interest rates. So here we could see a dovish stance and it is negative for the pound. Add to that falling inflation and the pound has not had a good week.
Tuesday: GDP - Spain (EUR)
Wednesday: inflation - Spain (EUR)
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The recap of the week is here! Join us in recapping the highlights of the past week. This week will be packed with fundamentals, so stay tuned!
Within the euro area, data came to us during the week mainly on inflation. The core inflation rate in Germany fell to 2.5 % in February, in line with estimates. This was the lowest reading since June 2021 and close to the ECB's target. The inflation rate in Spain fell to its lowest level in six months (2.8 %). Core inflation also fell slightly year-on-year to 3.5 %. Broadly unchanged from estimates. The inflation rate in France fell to 3 % in February. This was the lowest reading since 1/2022. On a month-over-month basis, however, we could see an increase of 0.8 %. This is the fastest growth since 8/2023.
In terms of retail trade, the Spanish retail sector declined to 0.3 % in January 2024, a deterioration compared to the previous period. Although this was the fourteenth consecutive month of growth, it was the weakest in the series.
Overall, this is negative news for the EUR, except for the month-on-month inflation in France, which is a bit of a thorn in the side.
Monday: Euro area inflation rate (EUR)
Tuesday: BOJ meeting (JPY), RBA meeting (AUD), inflation in Canada (CAD)
This week will be mostly about monetary policy meetings of central banks. There are 6 meetings on the agenda. Tuesday's Bank of Japan is expected to finally end its negative rate policy and raise rates by 10bp.
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We are currently planning to enhance our market analyses with additional interesting features. We will keep you informed, there is a lot to look forward to!
Another Monday recap is here! Join us as we recap what impacted the markets last week to keep you in the loop!
The end of the week was interesting for us mainly thanks to the data from the US labour market, on which the USD weakened. The US economy created 275,000 new jobs in February, which beat market estimates. However, as far as the unemployment rate is concerned, it was not that good. In fact, the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 % in February, reaching the highest level since January 2022.
At first glance, the numbers seemed good, but the details were not so good. The market focused on the unemployment rate and the USD weakened.
Tuesday: PPI in Japan, UK labour market, US inflation
Wednesday: UK GDP
Thursday: Swiss PPI, Spanish inflation
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Welcome to the first Fundamental Summary in March. Join us as we recap the most important events that impacted the markets at the turn of the month. Stay in the loop!
During the week, we received mostly inflation data from the euro area. France's annual inflation rate slowed to 2.9 % in February, the lowest since January 2022. Germany's inflation also posted a decline from 2.9 % to 2.5 in February, the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Inflation also fell in Spain, where it slowed to 2.8 %.
For the euro area as a whole, the annual core inflation rate fell to 3.1 %, slightly above market estimates but still the lowest since March 2022. The core inflation rate fell to 2.6 %.
Overall, the data are lower, and this is reassuring for the European Central Bank (ECB). Nothing should change in terms of the June rate cut. Negative for the euro.
At the end of the week, we focused on the unemployment rate, which, unlike inflation, was positive. The unemployment rate fell to 6.4 %, the lowest on record. This tells us that labour market conditions are holding up well. Positive for the euro.
Looks like we're in for quite a busy week. Monday's Swiss inflation rate should give us more clarity towards a March rate cut, where there is currently about a 50% chance.
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English 
Czech 
Polish