The regular Monday recap is here. Last week we were mainly interested in the Canadian inflation rate and the US labour market.
Have a nice Monday!
On Thursday, we watched the incoming Eurozone PMI data, which turned out to be positive for the EUR.
On Thursday, positive PMI data also came in from the UK, beating market expectations.
From the US, we were most interested in the labour market numbers. Specifically, unemployment claims, which we received on Wednesday, because Thursday and Friday were holidays in the US.
The most important news from last week was Tuesday's inflation in Canada, which was not very positive for the Canadian dollar.
The week will start with Tuesday's Australian retail sales figures (1:30), which according to preliminary estimates should fall slightly.
Wednesday will be more interesting as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's monetary policy meeting is scheduled (2:00), where a pause is expected. Then we get the preliminary US GDP data in the afternoon (14:30).
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Last week, we focused mostly on inflation and labor market data, which provided a trading opportunity on BP/CAD.
Let's recall together what was central.
Tuesday's euro area labour market data were broadly positive. According to preliminary data, the number of employed persons increased by 0.3 % in the 3 months to September 2023.
On Tuesday we also got labour market data from the UK, which was positive for the pound.
The most important news the market focused on last week was the current inflation rate in the US.
The Canadian dollar also weakened in response to the US data. As a result, we decided to take advantage of the trading opportunity on the currency pair GBP/CADthat we shared in the discord group.
The more interesting data to focus on will come on Tuesday, when the latest Canadian inflation numbers are released (14:30).
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Monday's recap is here! Let's recap together the most important events that moved the markets last week.
From the euro area, we got retail sales and PMI data last week, which were rather negative for the euro.
Friday's data on the UK economy were quite positive.
Thursday's numbers from the US labour market were again generally good. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits decreased by 3 thousand.
Our attention was mainly focused on Tuesday's monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which, as expected, raised the interest rate by 25 basis points.
On Tuesday we got more data from the Swiss labour market, which looked good.
We received data from the Czech Republic last week to which the koruna reacted by strengthening. The unemployment rate fell from 3.6 % to 3.5 % in October.
This week will be mostly about inflation and the labour market.
On Tuesday, we get UK labour market data (8:00), followed by preliminary Eurozone labour market and GDP numbers. In the afternoon, the market will turn its attention to the latest inflation rate from the US.
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Welcome to our regular recap of last week's fundamentals. It was a busy one. Let's recap the highlights together.
From the euro area we watched incoming data during the week, which in total came out negative for the euro. According to Tuesday's preliminary estimates (GDP), the euro area economy contracted by 0.1 % quarter-on-quarter.
One of the things the market was waiting for was Thursday's Bank of England meeting. The central bank left its key interest rate at 5.25 % for the second consecutive day.
From the US, our primary focus last week was on the Fed meeting and incoming inflation data. The Fed left rates at their 22-year high for the second consecutive week.
As for August, the Canadian economy stagnated.
Tuesday's data from the New Zealand labour market also showed a decline
At the end of the month, we could hear encouraging news from the Bank of Japan that a change in monetary policy was being considered.
This week is going to be a lot leaner, so we're going to rest a bit.
PMI numbers from Japan, the eurozone and Canada will be released on Monday. We will focus our attention mainly on Tuesday's meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (4:30), which could see a 25bp rate hike.
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Monday's recap is here. Together, let's recap the highlights of the past week. And that was.
On Tuesday, we watched the preliminary PMI data from the euro area, which came out negative for the euro.
On Tuesday, we focused our attention on the UK labour market data, which was incomplete.
Tuesday's PMI, came out positive for the USD. The manufacturing index rose to 50 points, beating market estimates.
On Wednesday, we focused our attention on the Bank of Canada meeting. The Bank of Canada left the key interest rate unchanged as planned.
The Australian dollar had a fairly positive week, strengthening mostly on strengthening quarter-on-quarter inflation.
Tuesday will be mostly about Japan (JPY). Overnight, unemployment rate data will come in, accompanied by retail sales and the Bank of Japan meeting at 3:30. Again, the BoJ is not expected to raise rates, but we could already hear that a hike plan is on the table.
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Welcome to our regular Monday recap of the past week. It was full of inflation data. Let's recap the highlights together.
Wednesday's inflation rate in the euro area came in line with market expectations. The headline annual inflation rate declined to 4.3 % and the core rate fell to 4.5 %. Which is the lowest reading since August 2022.
On Wednesday, we also watched the UK inflation rate, which remained at 6.7 %, holding at an 18-month low, according to market estimates.
On Tuesday, we also got inflation data from Canada. The year-on-year inflation rate fell to 3.8 %, which was below market expectations.
Thursday's Australian labour market data supported our technical outlook on AUDCHF and helped TP.
This week will be interesting from a fundamental point of view, as several central bank meetings are scheduled.
On Tuesday, we'll focus on the Japanese inflation rate (2:30) and a flurry of preliminary PMI data from Australia, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. In the morning (8:00), UK labour market data will add to the mix.
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The regular Monday recap is here! Together, let's recap the highlights of the past week.
Last week was pretty weak on data... But that can't be said for the USD. US data played a significant role throughout the week. On Wednesday, the actual PPI numbers came out, which were surprisingly positive and good for the USD.
The next event we focused on was Friday's Swiss PPI numbers. Producer and import prices fell by 1.0 % yoy in September.
We have shared our 2 outlooks on the AUDCHF and NZDCHF currency pairs to the discord group. Currently we have all positions protected from possible loss.
The current week will again be richer in incoming data.
On Tuesday, we will focus on UK labour market data, which will come at 8:00. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady (albeit quite high).
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A new trading month is upon us and how else to start it than with a review of the most important things that happened last week. Read on to keep up to date.
On Friday, we got the preliminary Eurozone inflation numbers, which came in lower.
Like every Thursday, we were interested in the numbers on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US.
Tokyo core inflation fell from 2.8 % to 2.5 %, marking the third consecutive month of decline.
During the week, we posted our view on the USD/CZK currency pair to the outlook group, where we entered directly into the CNB meeting. Here, the aforementioned fundamentals that weakened the CZK played out beautifully.
This week will be a bit more interesting.
On Tuesday, we have the RBA meeting, where the central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged. At 8:30 we will then be treated to data on the current inflation rate in Switzerland.
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Welcome to our regular recap and outlook. Last week was literally a week of central banks and inflation. Let's recap the most important news together.
Earlier in the week, we focused our attention on inflation from the Eurozone, which came a few days after the ECB meeting. The annual rate fell in August to its lowest level since January 2022.
Last week was a very nutritious one for GBP and the negative data only reinforced our view that it is weakening. On Wednesday (the day before the BOE meeting), we were waiting for actual inflation rate data from the UK. The annual core inflation rate fell to 6.7 % in August from the previous 6.8 %.
On Wednesday, the Fed left the benchmark interest rate unchanged, as expected. However, the US dollar strengthened in response to the press conference.
This week will be much weaker. On Tuesday, we will focus on the current inflation rate in Japan. On Thursday, we will await initial jobless claims in the US.
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Here is our regular summary and outlook. This week will be very rich from a fundamental position and we expect bigger moves. So stay tuned so you don't miss anything!
The most important event of the week was Thursday's ECB meeting, which surprised with a 25bp increase in the base interest rate.
In the group we shared our trading outlook (long) on the EUR/AUD currency pair, which has entered the first zone of interest thanks to the ECB.
The British pound had a week full of bad data, to which it reacted by weakening.
Other interesting data we were waiting for were the US labour market and inflation numbers.
Thursday's data from the Australian labour market was negative for AUD and only supported our outlook on the EUR/AUD pair.
The current trading week will be very interesting from a fundamental position and we expect significant moves.
It will all revolve around inflation and central bank meetings. Here are the most important news stories we'll be focusing on this week:
Tuesday, September 19: Eurozone (11:00) and Canadian (14:30) inflation rates
Wednesday, September 20: UK inflation (8:00) and Fed monetary policy meeting (20:00)
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