Welcome to the latest summary of the most interesting economic events of this business year!
We hope that you enjoyed the Christmas holidays in peace and family and we hope that you will celebrate the New Year properly, as it should be. 😊
We wish you lots of energy and success in the New Year 2022, not only in the field of trading. Make yourself proud!
Last trading week was in the Christmas spirit on the markets, which is why volatility was more moderate. Even so, we did watch some interesting data that came in before the holidays.
The start of the week (Tuesday) brought us Canadian Core Retail Sales data, which rose to a current value of 1.3 % (previous - 0.2 %). Generally, a higher value indicates a bullish sentiment for the currency. Then on Thursday, we had October GDP, which was slightly more positive (from 0.2 % to 0.8 %). Canadian GDP will likely offset the pandemic decline in Q1, but a return to trend will take time after 2022.
On Wednesday we focused on UK GDP data, which as expected offered no surprises and zero market catalysts.
Quarterly GDP: 1.1 % (forecast 1.3 %, previous 1.3 %)
Annual GDP: 6.8 % (forecast 6.6 %, previous 6.6 %)
On the same day (Wednesday), we watched GDP data from the US, which came out worse than last month (2.3 % vs. 6.7 %).
This week will be quiet in the markets due to the Christmas holidays and the start of the New Year 2022 celebrations.
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We bring you our regular Monday recap of the most interesting economic events we noted in the past trading week.
The first half of the week was weaker on fundamentals. The second half was mainly marked by interest rates, which moved the market decisively. The Fed in particular had its attention.
On Wednesday (15.12.) came the long-awaited data on the interest rate announcement from the USA, where the Fed left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, the Fed pledged to use a range of tools to support the economy at this challenging time. It wants to support its objective of maximum employment and maintaining price stability. The job market is a slight disappointment. Powell (Fed Chairman) said at his conference that the Omicron option is a definite risk, but still the US economy sees rapid growth. The path of the economy will continue to depend on the course of the virus. Advances in vaccination are expected to boost economic activity and increase employment.
The Committee plans to maintain the rate range between 0-0.25 % until labour market conditions reach an appropriate level. Thus, the long-awaited US equity market crash did not take place and in our eyes the Fed just postponed solving its problems.
A day later, we watched the UK interest rate announcement, where the long-in-the-air rate hike finally came. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee set monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target. Since the November meeting, the Omicron variant of Covid is again playing a role, which appears to be much more portable and poses new risks based on current knowledge.
On the same day, we could also watch the announcement of interest rates in the euro area, where the European Central Bank left rates unchanged. In support of its symmetric 2% inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the ECB's key interest rates to remain at current or lower levels until inflation reaches 2 %.
This week we expect less volatility in the markets through the Christmas holidays. The only economic data worth noting will come from the UK (Retail Sales, GDP) and US GDP on Tuesday and Wednesday.
There comes that time when you need to put business aside for a while and enjoy the holidays with your family.
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We bring you a regular overview of the most important economic events that influenced our trading in the second trading week of this month.
The first half of the week already offered us a number of interesting data on interest rates coming from Australia and Canada.
On Tuesday (7.12.2021) the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) left interest rates unchanged at 0.10 %. The Board decided at the meeting to hold the cash rate at 10 basis points and continue to purchase government securities at a rate of 4 billion per week until mid-February 2022. Household consumption is recovering strongly and the economy is expected to return to pre-Delta levels in the first half of 2022. However, there is a valid concern about the uncertainty surrounding the new version of the Omicron.
A day later, new data came in regarding interest rate changes from Canada, which also left them unchanged at 0.25 %, as expected. The BOC (Bank of Canada) continues to reinvest and maintain its holdings of government bonds. The economy continues to recover from the pandemic and grew by 5.5 % in the third quarter as expected. This suggests that the economy has gained considerable momentum. However, the Governing Council believes that the economy needs to continue to be supported significantly. As elsewhere, the Omicron has introduced new uncertainty.
At the end of the week, we were waiting for the incoming UK GDP data, which came in slightly worse than in November (0.1 % actual, vs. 0.6 % previous).
This week we expect increased volatility on currency pairs containing USD, GBP, EUR and JPY. The first half of the week will see data from the UK regarding the change in unemployment. Other important data awaits us in the second half of the week where we can expect the Fed's interest rate decision and GDP to come out of New Zealand. On Thursday, we will turn our attention to the EU interest rate decision. The end of the week is also likely to be more volatile as Japan will also offer us its interest rate decision.
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In the photo: RBA Governor Philip Lowe
Welcome to our regular Monday summary of the most important economic events that took place at the turn of the month.
USD
Earlier in the week, we focused on the output of US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Jerome Powell (Fed Chairman), who once again prepared his speech on inflation. Powell conveyed that the factors driving inflation higher are likely to persist through 2022. Inflation is well above target (2 %), pushed higher by pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances. Although the U.S. economy continues to strengthen, the new variant of the virus poses a problem for employment, feeding heightened uncertainty about inflation... Powell acknowledged that it is time to drop the term "transitory" for inflation. The risk of higher inflation is a risk to the return of full employment. Late in the week, data was released regarding US Nonfarm payrolls, which measures the change in the number of people employed, compared to last month, excluding the agricultural sector. Higher readings imply bullish sentiment, which we did not see as the actual readings came in much worse (210k vs. the previous 546k).
EUR
On Tuesday, we were awaiting data on the change in the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. The actual reading came in slightly more positive (4.9 %) compared to the previous reading (4.1 %). Eurozone inflation surged to its highest level in 30 years, while the core reading is the highest on record in November, as rising energy prices are the main driver of price increases.
CAD
The same day (Tuesday) also saw the release of GDP data from Canada.
The month-on-month GDP result was slightly worse than the previous month (0.1 % actual vs. 0.6 % previous),
At the end of the week we were still interested in the change in the number of people employed. Job creation is an important indicator of consumer spending. In this respect, we were surprised when the actual result came out more positive compared to the previous month (153.7k vs. 31.2k). The unemployment rate is the lowest since February 2020 and the total number of jobs is now 186k above pre-pandemic levels.
What's in store for the current trading week?
This week, we will turn our attention to the interest rate decisions coming from Australia and Canada on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will expect a large dose of volatility in the AUD and CAD currency pairs on these days. Later in the week we will be waiting for data from the US regarding the change in GDP and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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Photo by Anna Tarazevich from Pexels
We bring you our regular Monday commentary on the economic events that affected our trading in the past trading week.
GBP
The beginning of the week (23 November) saw data from the UK, which brought changes to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2021. In general, there were no major increases or decreases from previous readings. However, they were largely more positive than expected.
NZD
The main topic last week was the decision to change interest rates in New Zealand. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to the current level of 0.75 %. The Committee agreed that it remained appropriate to continue to reduce monetary stimulus to maintain price stability. A range of economic indicators demonstrate that the New Zealand economy is performing above its potential.
The RBNZ Governor, Adrian Orr, said at the meeting that a 25 basis point hike provides more options, but we need to be cautious given the huge debt.
In response to this news, the NZD started to react a little differently than we would have expected. In the second half of the week, it was weakening... This is probably due to the fact that the RBNZ was not hawkish enough. A rate hike was expected and Orr's rhetoric was rather balanced when he mentioned the huge debt.
USD
On the same day (24 November) came the GDP data from the USA. The quarterly result came out significantly negative from the previous 6.7 % to 2.1 1 %.
WORLDWIDE
In the first half of the week, the markets behaved somewhat normally and in their standard manner. However, this was disrupted by the major news of the spread of a new mutation of Covid from South Africa, which many experts consider to be a threat. Countries such as Italy, Germany and Japan tightened controls at airports and banned entry to travellers from South Africa.
The markets reacted to these "shocks" in a rather confused manner. In any case, we will watch how the situation develops and wait to see what trend the markets take.
What's in store for the current trading week?
Apart from the aforementioned monitoring of events regarding the new spreading mutation of the virus, we will turn our attention in the current trading week to Wednesday's data coming from the Eurozone (CPI) and to NFP coming from the US.
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Welcome to another Monday recap of the most interesting economic events of the past week.
EUR
On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave her speech and again talked about inflation. Christine noted that it was very unlikely that the conditions for a rate hike would be met in 2022. It's not that Christine said anything new, but thanks to her rather dovish messages, the EUR started to weaken slightly.
USD
A day later (16.11.2021) we turned our attention to the incoming data from the USA. In the afternoon, we got Core retail sales and US retail sales, which came in better than expected. Usually this means a bullish bias for the USD.
GBP
Wednesday was interesting with data from the UK and Canada, where we got news on the Consumer Price Indexes. In both countries, the actual data came out more positive, and that usually means a bullish sentiment for the currency. This is because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective and is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
What's in store for the current trading week?
Right from the beginning of this week (Tuesday) PMI data from the UK will come. On Wednesday, we will turn our attention to New Zealand, which will bring the latest interest rate decision. On the same day we also expect GDP data from the US. We expect increased volatility on the NZD and USD on this day.
The end of the week, on the other hand, will probably bring us less volatility on the USD due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.
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Pictured: Christine Lagarde - President of the ECB
Welcome to our regular Monday recap of the most interesting economic events and results that affected our trading during the last trading week. Last week was one of the poorer weeks for economic results compared to previous weeks. Still, we have some interesting results worth noting.
EUR
Right on Monday (8.11.2021) we could see a statement by the US ECB economist, Philip Lane, who talked about inflation. According to him, the current period of inflation is very unusual but temporary. Inflation is quite high at the moment.
A day later, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), spoke, focusing more on EU house prices. Schnabel mentioned that monetary policy cannot turn a blind eye to credit growth in the institutional environment. House prices simply require more attention in terms of financial stability. There remains constant uncertainty about how sustained these price pressures will be...
USD
On Tuesday (9.11.2021), Fed chairman Jerome Powell spoke to us and mentioned almost nothing about the current outlook. The Fed is now paying more attention to the divergence in the labor market.
On this day, we could also see the monthly increase in the Product Price Index (PPI) from the previous 0.5 % to 0.6 %, which measures the change in the price of goods. This is one of the main indicators of inflation.
A higher value usually means a bullish bias for the USD.
On Wednesday (10.11.2021.), we watched the change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose from the previous value of 0.2 % to 0.6 % in October. This higher value usually indicates a bullish scenario for the USD.
GBP
On Thursday (11.11.2021) we were interested in the month-on-month and year-on-year changes in UK GDP. Higher readings tend to be bullish for GBP. The year-on-year GDP value fell from 23.6 % to 6.6 %... The month-on-month change in the value was not drastic, of course, as its value only increased to 0.6 % from the previous 0.4 %.
What's in store for the current trading week?
In the current week, we will focus mainly on Tuesday and Thursday's retail sales in the US and the UK.
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Pictured here is Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB)
We are in the second trading week of the new month, in which we bring you a summary of the most interesting economic events that caught our attention during last week's trading.
Last week, we saw increased volatility in the markets again, especially in the currency pairs with the British Pound (GBP). Australia and the US also brought us interesting economic news.
AUD
On Tuesday (2.11.2021) we saw the interest rate announcement coming from Australia.
We did not see any change again and rates remained at 0.10 %. The statement from the Governor of the RBA - Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, shows that the RBA will continue to maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points. The Board also decided to continue to purchase $4 billion of government securities per week until at least mid-February 2022.
The economy in Australia is recovering after its interruption. The Delta epidemic caused a sharp drop in hours worked, but it is already making a comeback.
Financial conditions remain very accommodating and interest rates are at record lending lows.
This information is slightly encouraging.
USD
On Wednesday (3.11.2021), the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference caught our attention, with the Fed committing to use a range of its tools to support the economy in these challenging times. Economic activity and employment continue to strengthen thanks to advances in vaccinations. However, the path of the economy continues to depend on the progress of the virus... How else...
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 0.25 %. They wanted to maintain this target until labor market conditions reached an appropriate level. The Fed stuck with the "transitory" language that some thought would be removed, but added some humility to the language and said it was "expected" to be transitory.
GBP
The British Pound (GBP) had a particularly bad week, weakening on virtually all of its currency pairs. One reason for the weakness was unfulfilled expectations that the Bank of England (BOE) would raise the bank rate by 15 basis points. This did not happen and the BOE left its rates unchanged. BOE Governor, Andrew Bailey commented that it was not their responsibility to guide the markets with interest rates... To some extent he was not surprised to see a correction in the markets.
What's in store for the current trading week?
We expect a slightly quieter week this week. On Tuesday, we will hear from ECB President Christine Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey. From the US, we will have short-term energy outlook data and Fed Chairman Powell will speak. On Wednesday, we expect more data from the US on the CPI change and unemployment. On Thursday, GDP from the UK is sure to catch our attention.
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A new trading week is here and we bring you a regular summary of the key trading events of the past week.
The markets experienced more volatility again this week. This is because of the upcoming economic data from the Eurozone, the US and Canada.
CAD
The first thing we saw on Wednesday was the Canadian dollar's reaction to the Bank of Canada's (BOC) rate decision for October 2021. The CAD strengthened strongly on news that the Bank of Canada was prematurely ending its quantitative easing (QE) program and limiting its purchases to $0 per month. Indeed, it was widely expected to shrink to USD1bn/week from USD2bn/week. The Bank is ending quantitative easing (QE) and moving into a reinvestment phase during which it will purchase Canadian government bonds for the sole purpose of replacing maturing bonds.
JPY
The Japanese yen (JPY) fared slightly worse. Thursday morning saw the announcement of interest rate changes in Japan, with the Bank of Japan leaving its key plans unchanged, as was also expected. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in his press conference that he would ease monetary policy further if needed, without hesitation. The BOJ's quarterly report shows that, Japan's economy is likely to recover once the impact of the pandemic wears off. However, the economy continues to remain in serious condition but is trending higher.
EUR
On the same day, it also raised the ECB interest rate decision, which it left unchanged as expected. However, of far greater importance for the euro was the press conference where Christine Lagarde mentioned that the economy would jump above pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. THAT resulted in a slight strengthening of the Euro.
What's in store for the current trading week?
The current trading week will again bring data from central banks, which will issue their decisions on interest rate changes. Tuesday will bring us this data from Australia and Wednesday from the US. Therefore, we expect increased market volatility again on these days.
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In the photo: Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda
Photo source: https://www.forexlive.com/
It's a new trading week and we bring you an overview of current economic events in the world that have influenced our trading decisions.
The beginning of the week was relatively quiet in terms of economic events. The first interesting figures were brought to us only on Wednesday (20.10.2021), when we could watch the results of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom, the euro area and Canada.
On Wednesday morning, we could see that the latest data released by the ONS (20 October 2021) showed a slight fall in UK annual inflation from 3.2 % to 3.1 %. However, overall inflation remains elevated and is not expected to change the situation ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) meeting in November.
Later came the CPI results from the euro area, which reinforced our view that there was no change from previous estimates and that the continued rise in annual inflation in the euro area was putting pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB).
At the end of the day, we got CPI results from Canada, which again brought stronger numbers and we remain in an uptrend here as well. These results are the last key input before the Bank of Canada (BOC) meeting this week on Wednesday (27/10/2021).
In general, it can be argued that a higher than previous/expected CPI value has a positive impact on the currency - bullish.
The end of the week brought us some more interesting UK retail sales data, which came in slightly better than September (previous -0.6 %, current -0.2 %). One thing to note is that the easing of restrictions hasn't exactly led to a major change in consumer behaviour, and retail sales in stores are still subdued...
At the very end of the week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that high inflation is likely to ease. But it will probably last until next year. As soon as he started speaking, we could see the US dollar strengthening. Powell is going to run the attrition through Q1 and then call for a rate hike.
The beginning of this week can be almost calm. Change will come mid-week.
As I mentioned, we have a BOC meeting on Wednesday with a decision on interest rates. A day later on Thursday will bring us important data on Japan's interest rate change early in the morning.
This means that we expect significantly higher market volatility in the second half of the week.
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English 
Czech 
Polish